A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
