Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
