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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the award. However, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or merely the biggest shock.

Yet this year's race is distinctly different. The group of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and recent underperformers rising collectively. During an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still