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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd